Riding profile

Clwyd East

UK constituency — Wales · Mixed · wales

The question

Clwyd East: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Clwyd East, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 25% vote share, against 24% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Becky Gittins

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
79%
Mean margin (pts)
0.8
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 24.8%
  • Reform UK 24.3%
  • Labour 18.4%
  • Green 11.7%
  • Plaid Cymru 11.2%
  • Lib Dems 5.6%
  • Other 3.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Labour Green
HereClwyd East 24.8%24.3%18.4%11.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 18.9% +5.9 25.3% −1.0 21.7% −3.3 11.8% −0.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
9.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-8.9 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Becky Gittins Elected Labour 18,484 38.6
James Davies Conservative 13,862 29.0
Kirsty Walmsley Reform UK 7,626 15.9
Paul Penlington Plaid Cymru 3,733 7.8
Alec Dauncey Lib Dems 1,859 3.9
Lee Lavery Green 1,659 3.5
Rob Roberts Other 599 1.3

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
96,534
Median age
49
Employment rate
76.7%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029