Riding profile

Clwyd East

UK constituency — Wales · Mixed · wales

The question

Clwyd East: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
3.4
P(close race)
99%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 26.5%
  • Conservative 23.1%
  • Labour 20.2%
  • Plaid Cymru 13.4%
  • Green 9.3%
  • Lib Dems 5.0%
  • Other 2.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Plaid Cymru
HereClwyd East 26.5%23.1%20.2%13.4%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +1.1 19.3% +3.8 21.8% −1.6 1.2% +12.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Clwyd East, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 27% vote share, against 23% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Becky Gittins

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
9.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-6.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Becky Gittins Elected Labour 18,484 38.6 —
James Davies Conservative 13,862 29.0 —
Kirsty Walmsley Reform UK 7,626 15.9 —
Paul Penlington Plaid Cymru 3,733 7.8 —
Alec Dauncey Lib Dems 1,859 3.9 —
Lee Lavery Green 1,659 3.5 —
Rob Roberts Other 599 1.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
96,534
Median age
49
Employment rate
76.7%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029