Riding profile
Clwyd East
The question
Clwyd East: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Clwyd East, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 25% vote share, against 24% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Becky Gittins
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Conservative
Toss-up
- Probability
- 79%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 0.8
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereClwyd East | 24.8% | 24.3% | 18.4% | 11.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 18.9% +5.9 | 25.3% −1.0 | 21.7% −3.3 | 11.8% −0.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Becky Gittins Elected | Labour | 18,484 | 38.6 | — |
| James Davies | Conservative | 13,862 | 29.0 | — |
| Kirsty Walmsley | Reform UK | 7,626 | 15.9 | — |
| Paul Penlington | Plaid Cymru | 3,733 | 7.8 | — |
| Alec Dauncey | Lib Dems | 1,859 | 3.9 | — |
| Lee Lavery | Green | 1,659 | 3.5 | — |
| Rob Roberts | Other | 599 | 1.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029