Riding profile
Clwyd North
The question
Clwyd North: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Clwyd North, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 28% vote share, against 26% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Gill German
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Conservative
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.4
- P(close race)
- 99%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Plaid Cymru | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereClwyd North | 27.9% | 25.6% | 17.2% | 12.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 18.9% +9.0 | 25.3% +0.3 | 21.7% −4.5 | 1.0% +11.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gill German Elected | Labour | 14,794 | 35.5 | — |
| Darren Millar | Conservative | 13,598 | 32.7 | — |
| Jamie Orange | Reform UK | 7,000 | 16.8 | — |
| Paul Rowlinson | Plaid Cymru | 3,159 | 7.6 | — |
| David Wilkins | Lib Dems | 1,685 | 4.0 | — |
| Martyn Hogg | Green | 1,391 | 3.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029