Riding profile

Clwyd North

UK constituency — Wales · Mixed · wales

The question

Clwyd North: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.6
P(close race)
71%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 29.3%
  • Conservative 24.7%
  • Labour 18.7%
  • Plaid Cymru 14.4%
  • Green 8.1%
  • Lib Dems 4.0%
  • Other 0.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Plaid Cymru
HereClwyd North 29.3%24.7%18.7%14.4%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +3.9 19.3% +5.4 21.8% −3.1 1.2% +13.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Clwyd North, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 29% vote share, against 25% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Gill German

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
2.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Gill German Elected Labour 14,794 35.5 —
Darren Millar Conservative 13,598 32.7 —
Jamie Orange Reform UK 7,000 16.8 —
Paul Rowlinson Plaid Cymru 3,159 7.6 —
David Wilkins Lib Dems 1,685 4.0 —
Martyn Hogg Green 1,391 3.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
99,781
Median age
46
Employment rate
73.7%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029