Riding profile

Ynys Môn

UK constituency — Wales · Mixed · wales

The question

Ynys Môn: a safe seat for Plaid Cymru?

Current forecast

Plaid Cymru

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Plaid Cymru 31.1%
  • Conservative 21.9%
  • Reform UK 21.8%
  • Labour 12.7%
  • Green 5.6%
  • Lib Dems 4.5%
  • Other 2.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Plaid Cymru Conservative Reform UK Labour
HereYnys Môn 31.1%21.9%21.8%12.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 1.2% +29.9 19.3% +2.6 25.4% −3.6 21.8% −9.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Ynys Môn, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Plaid Cymru in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Plaid Cymru ahead at 31% vote share, against 22% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Llinos Medi

Sits with Plaid Cymru

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Plaid Cymru
Margin
1.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Llinos Medi Elected Plaid Cymru 10,590 32.5
Virginia Crosbie Conservative 9,953 30.5
Ieuan Williams Labour 7,619 23.4
Emmett Jenner Reform UK 3,223 9.9
Martin Schwaller Green 604 1.9
Leena Farhat Lib Dems 439 1.4
Sir Grumpus L Shorticus Other 156 0.5
Sam Wood Other 44 0.1

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
69,049
Median age
49
Employment rate
77.4%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029