Riding profile
Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr
The question
Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 26% vote share, against 20% for Plaid Cymru, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Steve Witherden
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 98%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.7
- P(close race)
- 40%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Plaid Cymru | Lib Dems | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMontgomeryshire and Glyndŵr | 25.7% | 20.3% | 14.6% | 14.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +0.4 | 1.0% +19.2 | 11.6% +2.9 | 18.9% −4.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Witherden Elected | Labour | 12,709 | 29.4 | — |
| Oliver Lewis | Reform UK | 8,894 | 20.6 | — |
| Craig Williams | Conservative | 7,775 | 18.0 | — |
| Glyn Preston | Lib Dems | 6,470 | 15.0 | — |
| Elwyn Vaughn | Plaid Cymru | 5,667 | 13.1 | — |
| Jeremy Brignell-Thorp | Green | 1,744 | 4.0 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029