Riding profile
Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr
The question
Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Competitive
- Probability
- 99%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.6
- P(close race)
- 26%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Plaid Cymru | Conservative | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMontgomeryshire and Glyndŵr | 26.9% | 20.4% | 14.5% | 14.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +1.5 | 1.2% +19.2 | 19.3% −4.8 | 11.4% +3.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 27% vote share, against 20% for Plaid Cymru, and the riding remains competitive.
Sitting member
Steve Witherden
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Witherden Elected | Labour | 12,709 | 29.4 | — |
| Oliver Lewis | Reform UK | 8,894 | 20.6 | — |
| Craig Williams | Conservative | 7,775 | 18.0 | — |
| Glyn Preston | Lib Dems | 6,470 | 15.0 | — |
| Elwyn Vaughn | Plaid Cymru | 5,667 | 13.1 | — |
| Jeremy Brignell-Thorp | Green | 1,744 | 4.0 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029