Riding profile
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe
The question
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 27% vote share, against 22% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
David Chadwick
Sits with Lib Dems
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.1
- P(close race)
- 95%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBrecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe | 26.5% | 22.4% | 21.9% | 10.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.6% +14.9 | 18.9% +3.5 | 25.3% −3.4 | 11.8% −1.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Chadwick Elected | Lib Dems | 13,736 | 29.5 | — |
| Fay Jones | Conservative | 12,264 | 26.4 | — |
| Matthew Dorrance | Labour | 9,904 | 21.3 | — |
| Adam Hill | Reform UK | 6,567 | 14.1 | — |
| Emily Durrant-Munro | Plaid Cymru | 2,280 | 4.9 | — |
| Amerjit Kaur-Dhaliwal | Green | 1,188 | 2.5 | — |
| Jonathan Harrington | Other | 372 | 0.8 | — |
| Lady Lily The Pink | Other | 237 | 0.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029