Riding profile
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe
The question
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.1
- P(close race)
- 3%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Reform UK | Conservative | Plaid Cymru | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBrecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe | 28.8% | 22.6% | 20.8% | 9.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.4% +17.4 | 25.4% −2.7 | 19.3% +1.5 | 1.2% +8.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 29% vote share, against 23% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
David Chadwick
Sits with Lib Dems
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Chadwick Elected | Lib Dems | 13,736 | 29.5 | — |
| Fay Jones | Conservative | 12,264 | 26.4 | — |
| Matthew Dorrance | Labour | 9,904 | 21.3 | — |
| Adam Hill | Reform UK | 6,567 | 14.1 | — |
| Emily Durrant-Munro | Plaid Cymru | 2,280 | 4.9 | — |
| Amerjit Kaur-Dhaliwal | Green | 1,188 | 2.5 | — |
| Jonathan Harrington | Other | 372 | 0.8 | — |
| Lady Lily The Pink | Other | 237 | 0.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029