Riding profile
Rhondda and Ogmore
The question
Rhondda and Ogmore: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Rhondda and Ogmore, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 32% vote share, against 25% for Plaid Cymru, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Chris Bryant
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.7
- P(close race)
- 1%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Plaid Cymru | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereRhondda and Ogmore | 32.0% | 24.5% | 21.0% | 11.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +6.7 | 1.0% +23.5 | 21.7% −0.6 | 11.8% −0.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Bryant Elected | Labour | 17,118 | 47.8 | — |
| Darren James | Reform UK | 9,328 | 26.1 | — |
| Owen Cutler | Plaid Cymru | 5,198 | 14.5 | — |
| Adam Robinson | Conservative | 2,050 | 5.7 | — |
| Christine Glossop | Green | 1,177 | 3.3 | — |
| Gerald Francis | Lib Dems | 935 | 2.6 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029