Riding profile

Rhondda and Ogmore

UK constituency — Wales · Mixed · wales

The question

Rhondda and Ogmore: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Plaid Cymru

Toss-up

Probability
93%
Mean margin (pts)
1.5
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Plaid Cymru 29.6%
  • Reform UK 28.1%
  • Labour 26.3%
  • Green 8.6%
  • Conservative 4.5%
  • Lib Dems 2.0%
  • Other 0.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Plaid Cymru Reform UK Labour Green
HereRhondda and Ogmore 29.6%28.1%26.3%8.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 1.2% +28.4 25.4% +2.7 21.8% +4.5 10.8% −2.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Rhondda and Ogmore, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Plaid Cymru ahead at 30% vote share, against 28% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Chris Bryant

Sits with Labour

Since
2001-06-07
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
21.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-20.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Chris Bryant Elected Labour 17,118 47.8 —
Darren James Reform UK 9,328 26.1 —
Owen Cutler Plaid Cymru 5,198 14.5 —
Adam Robinson Conservative 2,050 5.7 —
Christine Glossop Green 1,177 3.3 —
Gerald Francis Lib Dems 935 2.6 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
100,022
Median age
41
Employment rate
63.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029