Riding profile
Mid and South Pembrokeshire
The question
Mid and South Pembrokeshire: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Mid and South Pembrokeshire, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 28% vote share, against 26% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Henry Tufnell
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Conservative
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.0
- P(close race)
- 99%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMid and South Pembrokeshire | 27.6% | 25.7% | 13.9% | 12.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 18.9% +8.7 | 25.3% +0.4 | 21.7% −7.8 | 11.8% +0.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Tufnell Elected | Labour | 16,505 | 35.4 | — |
| Stephen Crabb | Conservative | 14,627 | 31.4 | — |
| Stuart Marchant | Reform UK | 7,828 | 16.8 | — |
| Cris Tomos | Plaid Cymru | 2,962 | 6.3 | — |
| Alistair Cameron | Lib Dems | 2,372 | 5.1 | — |
| James Purchase | Green | 1,654 | 3.5 | — |
| Vusi Siphika | Other | 427 | 0.9 | — |
| Hanna Andersen | Other | 254 | 0.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029