Riding profile
Mid and South Pembrokeshire
The question
Mid and South Pembrokeshire: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 77%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 0.7
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Plaid Cymru | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMid and South Pembrokeshire | 25.6% | 25.1% | 16.6% | 14.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +0.2 | 19.3% +5.8 | 21.8% −5.2 | 1.2% +13.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Mid and South Pembrokeshire, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 26% vote share, against 25% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Henry Tufnell
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Tufnell Elected | Labour | 16,505 | 35.4 | — |
| Stephen Crabb | Conservative | 14,627 | 31.4 | — |
| Stuart Marchant | Reform UK | 7,828 | 16.8 | — |
| Cris Tomos | Plaid Cymru | 2,962 | 6.3 | — |
| Alistair Cameron | Lib Dems | 2,372 | 5.1 | — |
| James Purchase | Green | 1,654 | 3.5 | — |
| Vusi Siphika | Other | 427 | 0.9 | — |
| Hanna Andersen | Other | 254 | 0.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029