Riding profile

Gower

UK constituency — Wales · Mixed · wales

The question

Gower: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.2
P(close race)
80%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 27.3%
  • Labour 23.1%
  • Conservative 15.7%
  • Plaid Cymru 13.1%
  • Green 12.4%
  • Lib Dems 6.8%
  • Other 1.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Plaid Cymru
HereGower 27.3%23.1%15.7%13.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +1.9 21.8% +1.3 19.3% −3.7 1.2% +11.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Gower, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 27% vote share, against 23% for Labour, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Tonia Antoniazzi

Sits with Labour

Since
2017-06-08
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
24.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-20.3 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Tonia Antoniazzi Elected Labour 20,480 43.4 —
Marc Jenkins Conservative 8,913 18.9 —
Catrin Thomas Reform UK 8,530 18.1 —
Kieran Pritchard Plaid Cymru 3,942 8.3 —
Franck Banza Lib Dems 2,593 5.5 —
Chris Evans Green 2,488 5.3 —
Wayne Erasmus Other 283 0.6 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
96,686
Median age
47
Employment rate
74.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029