Riding profile
Gower
The question
Gower: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Gower, a mixed constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 26% vote share, against 24% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Tonia Antoniazzi
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Labour
Toss-up
- Probability
- 71%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 0.9
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereGower | 25.9% | 23.7% | 14.4% | 13.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.7% +4.3 | 25.3% −1.7 | 18.9% −4.5 | 11.8% +1.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tonia Antoniazzi Elected | Labour | 20,480 | 43.4 | — |
| Marc Jenkins | Conservative | 8,913 | 18.9 | — |
| Catrin Thomas | Reform UK | 8,530 | 18.1 | — |
| Kieran Pritchard | Plaid Cymru | 3,942 | 8.3 | — |
| Franck Banza | Lib Dems | 2,593 | 5.5 | — |
| Chris Evans | Green | 2,488 | 5.3 | — |
| Wayne Erasmus | Other | 283 | 0.6 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029