Riding profile

North Devon

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south west

The question

North Devon: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?

Editorial read

North Devon, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 34% vote share, against 27% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Ian Roome

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 34.3%
  • Reform UK 26.8%
  • Conservative 23.3%
  • Green 7.6%
  • Labour 5.3%
  • Other 2.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Reform UK Conservative Green
HereNorth Devon 34.3%26.8%23.3%7.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.6% +22.7 25.3% +1.4 18.9% +4.4 11.8% −4.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
13.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Ian Roome Elected Lib Dems 21,820 42.4
Selaine Saxby Conservative 15,076 29.3
Nigel James Reform UK 8,137 15.8
Nicky Edwards Labour 3,216 6.3
Cas Lay Green 2,348 4.6
Steve Cotten Other 820 1.6

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
100,505
Median age
48
Employment rate
76.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029