Riding profile

Central Devon

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south west

The question

Central Devon: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Central Devon, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 27% vote share, against 26% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Sir Mel Stride

Sits with Conservative

Since
2010-05-06
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
1.5
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 27.4%
  • Conservative 25.9%
  • Labour 19.2%
  • Lib Dems 15.2%
  • Green 9.9%
  • Other 2.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Lib Dems
HereCentral Devon 27.4%25.9%19.2%15.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.3% +2.0 18.9% +7.0 21.7% −2.4 11.6% +3.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
0.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.4 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Mel Stride Elected Conservative 16,831 31.5
Ollie Pearson Labour 16,770 31.4
Mark Wooding Lib Dems 8,232 15.4
Jeffrey Leeks Reform UK 7,784 14.6
Gill Westcott Green 3,338 6.3
Arthur Price Other 477 0.9

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
94,481
Median age
50
Employment rate
82.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029