Riding profile
Central Devon
The question
Central Devon: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Conservative
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.0
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCentral Devon | 27.1% | 26.2% | 18.8% | 14.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 19.3% +7.8 | 25.4% +0.8 | 21.8% −3.0 | 11.4% +3.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Central Devon, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 27% vote share, against 26% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Sir Mel Stride
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mel Stride Elected | Conservative | 16,831 | 31.5 | — |
| Ollie Pearson | Labour | 16,770 | 31.4 | — |
| Mark Wooding | Lib Dems | 8,232 | 15.4 | — |
| Jeffrey Leeks | Reform UK | 7,784 | 14.6 | — |
| Gill Westcott | Green | 3,338 | 6.3 | — |
| Arthur Price | Other | 477 | 0.9 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029