Riding profile
South Devon
The question
South Devon: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?
Editorial read
South Devon, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 36% vote share, against 25% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Caroline Voaden
Sits with Lib Dems
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 10.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSouth Devon | 36.1% | 25.3% | 24.8% | 6.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.6% +24.5 | 18.9% +6.4 | 25.3% −0.6 | 11.8% −5.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caroline Voaden Elected | Lib Dems | 22,540 | 46.0 | — |
| Anthony Mangnall | Conservative | 15,413 | 31.4 | — |
| Michael Bagley | Reform UK | 6,363 | 13.0 | — |
| Daniel Steel | Labour | 3,066 | 6.3 | — |
| Robert Bagnall | Green | 1,497 | 3.0 | — |
| Becca Collings | Other | 125 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029