Riding profile

South Devon

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south west

The question

South Devon: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?

Editorial read

South Devon, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 36% vote share, against 25% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Caroline Voaden

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 36.1%
  • Conservative 25.3%
  • Reform UK 24.8%
  • Green 6.0%
  • Labour 5.9%
  • Other 1.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Conservative Reform UK Green
HereSouth Devon 36.1%25.3%24.8%6.0%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.6% +24.5 18.9% +6.4 25.3% −0.6 11.8% −5.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
14.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Caroline Voaden Elected Lib Dems 22,540 46.0
Anthony Mangnall Conservative 15,413 31.4
Michael Bagley Reform UK 6,363 13.0
Daniel Steel Labour 3,066 6.3
Robert Bagnall Green 1,497 3.0
Becca Collings Other 125 0.3

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
91,318
Median age
52
Employment rate
69.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029