Riding profile

Torridge and Tavistock

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south west

The question

Torridge and Tavistock: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Torridge and Tavistock, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 30% vote share, against 25% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Sir Geoffrey Cox

Sits with Conservative

Since
2005-05-05
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.8
P(close race)
78%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 30.3%
  • Conservative 25.5%
  • Lib Dems 22.0%
  • Labour 12.3%
  • Green 7.6%
  • Other 2.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Lib Dems Labour
HereTorridge and Tavistock 30.3%25.5%22.0%12.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.3% +5.0 18.9% +6.6 11.6% +10.3 21.7% −9.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
7.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.9 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Geoffrey Cox Elected Conservative 16,049 31.6
Phil Hutty Lib Dems 12,099 23.8
Isabel Saxby Labour 10,765 21.2
Andrew Jackson Reform UK 9,152 18.0
Judy Maciejowska Green 2,350 4.6
Alan Rayner Other 405 0.8

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
96,538
Median age
52
Employment rate
74.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029