Riding profile

Torridge and Tavistock

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south west

The question

Torridge and Tavistock: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
2.5
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 29.5%
  • Conservative 27.1%
  • Lib Dems 19.6%
  • Labour 12.1%
  • Green 9.2%
  • Other 2.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Lib Dems Labour
HereTorridge and Tavistock 29.5%27.1%19.6%12.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +4.2 19.3% +7.8 11.4% +8.2 21.8% −9.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Torridge and Tavistock, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 30% vote share, against 27% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Sir Geoffrey Cox

Sits with Conservative

Since
2005-05-05
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
7.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.3 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Geoffrey Cox Elected Conservative 16,049 31.6 —
Phil Hutty Lib Dems 12,099 23.8 —
Isabel Saxby Labour 10,765 21.2 —
Andrew Jackson Reform UK 9,152 18.0 —
Judy Maciejowska Green 2,350 4.6 —
Alan Rayner Other 405 0.8 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
96,538
Median age
52
Employment rate
74.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029