Riding profile
Plymouth Moor View
The question
Plymouth Moor View: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Plymouth Moor View, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 37% vote share, against 24% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Fred Thomas
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 13.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HerePlymouth Moor View | 36.5% | 23.9% | 23.3% | 8.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +11.2 | 21.7% +2.2 | 18.9% +4.4 | 11.8% −3.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Thomas Elected | Labour | 17,665 | 41.2 | — |
| Johnny Mercer | Conservative | 12,061 | 28.1 | — |
| Shaun Hooper | Reform UK | 9,670 | 22.6 | — |
| Sarah Martin | Lib Dems | 1,766 | 4.1 | — |
| Georgia Nelson | Green | 1,694 | 4.0 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029