Riding profile
South West Devon
The question
South West Devon: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
South West Devon, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 31% vote share, against 28% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Rebecca Smith
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.0
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSouth West Devon | 30.9% | 27.9% | 17.1% | 10.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +5.5 | 18.9% +9.0 | 21.7% −4.5 | 11.6% −0.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rebecca Smith Elected | Conservative | 17,916 | 34.3 | — |
| Sarah Allen | Labour | 15,804 | 30.3 | — |
| Stephen Horner | Reform UK | 9,361 | 17.9 | — |
| Julian Brazil | Lib Dems | 5,551 | 10.6 | — |
| Lauren McLay | Green | 2,925 | 5.6 | — |
| Alan Spencer | Other | 438 | 0.8 | — |
| Ben Davy | Other | 141 | 0.3 | — |
| Darryl Ingram | Other | 106 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029