Riding profile
South East Cornwall
The question
South East Cornwall: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSouth East Cornwall | 30.6% | 24.7% | 16.7% | 15.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +5.2 | 19.3% +5.4 | 21.8% −5.1 | 11.4% +4.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
South East Cornwall, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 31% vote share, against 25% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Anna Gelderd
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anna Gelderd Elected | Labour | 15,670 | 31.8 | — |
| Sheryll Murray | Conservative | 13,759 | 27.9 | — |
| Paul Wadley | Reform UK | 9,311 | 18.9 | — |
| Colin Martin | Lib Dems | 8,284 | 16.8 | — |
| Martin Corney | Green | 1,999 | 4.1 | — |
| Graham Cowdry | Other | 263 | 0.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029