Riding profile
St Austell and Newquay
The question
St Austell and Newquay: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
St Austell and Newquay, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 34% vote share, against 23% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Noah Law
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 10.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSt Austell and Newquay | 34.1% | 23.4% | 19.2% | 11.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +8.8 | 18.9% +4.5 | 21.7% −2.5 | 11.6% −0.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Law Elected | Labour | 15,958 | 34.1 | — |
| Steve Double | Conservative | 13,488 | 28.9 | — |
| Stephen Beal | Reform UK | 9,212 | 19.7 | — |
| Joanna Kenny | Lib Dems | 4,805 | 10.3 | — |
| Amanda Pennington | Green | 2,337 | 5.0 | — |
| Jay Latham | Other | 490 | 1.1 | — |
| Angie Rayner | Other | 442 | 0.9 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029