Riding profile

St Austell and Newquay

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south west

The question

St Austell and Newquay: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.7
P(close race)
91%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 31.0%
  • Conservative 26.3%
  • Labour 18.9%
  • Lib Dems 10.3%
  • Green 9.8%
  • Other 3.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Lib Dems
HereSt Austell and Newquay 31.0%26.3%18.9%10.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +5.6 19.3% +6.9 21.8% −2.9 11.4% −1.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

St Austell and Newquay, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 31% vote share, against 26% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Noah Law

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
5.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Noah Law Elected Labour 15,958 34.1 —
Steve Double Conservative 13,488 28.9 —
Stephen Beal Reform UK 9,212 19.7 —
Joanna Kenny Lib Dems 4,805 10.3 —
Amanda Pennington Green 2,337 5.0 —
Jay Latham Other 490 1.1 —
Angie Rayner Other 442 0.9 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
100,170
Median age
45
Employment rate
69.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029