Riding profile

North Cornwall

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south west

The question

North Cornwall: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?

Editorial read

North Cornwall, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 39% vote share, against 28% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Ben Maguire

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 38.5%
  • Reform UK 28.2%
  • Conservative 21.4%
  • Labour 5.0%
  • Green 4.8%
  • Other 1.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Reform UK Conservative Labour
HereNorth Cornwall 38.5%28.2%21.4%5.0%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.6% +26.9 25.3% +2.9 18.9% +2.6 21.7% −16.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
19.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-9.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Ben Maguire Elected Lib Dems 24,094 47.0
Scott Mann Conservative 14,137 27.6
Rowland O'Connor Reform UK 8,444 16.5
Robyn Harris Labour 2,958 5.8
Lance Symonds Green 1,335 2.6
Sarah Farrell Other 277 0.5

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
99,822
Median age
49
Employment rate
74.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029