Riding profile
North Cornwall
The question
North Cornwall: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?
Editorial read
North Cornwall, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 39% vote share, against 28% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Ben Maguire
Sits with Lib Dems
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 10.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNorth Cornwall | 38.5% | 28.2% | 21.4% | 5.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.6% +26.9 | 25.3% +2.9 | 18.9% +2.6 | 21.7% −16.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Maguire Elected | Lib Dems | 24,094 | 47.0 | — |
| Scott Mann | Conservative | 14,137 | 27.6 | — |
| Rowland O'Connor | Reform UK | 8,444 | 16.5 | — |
| Robyn Harris | Labour | 2,958 | 5.8 | — |
| Lance Symonds | Green | 1,335 | 2.6 | — |
| Sarah Farrell | Other | 277 | 0.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029