Riding profile

Camborne and Redruth

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south west

The question

Camborne and Redruth: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 29.2%
  • Labour 23.7%
  • Conservative 22.3%
  • Green 11.4%
  • Lib Dems 9.1%
  • Other 4.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Green
HereCamborne and Redruth 29.2%23.7%22.3%11.4%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +3.8 21.8% +1.9 19.3% +2.9 10.8% +0.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Camborne and Redruth, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 29% vote share, against 24% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Perran Moon

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
16.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-10.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Perran Moon Elected Labour 19,360 40.5 —
Connor Donnithorne Conservative 11,554 24.2 —
Roger Tarrant Reform UK 8,952 18.7 —
Thalia Marrington Lib Dems 4,113 8.6 —
Catherine Hayes Green 2,840 5.9 —
Paul Holmes Other 624 1.3 —
Robert Hawkins Other 342 0.7 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
100,254
Median age
44
Employment rate
85.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029