Camborne and Redruth
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 51%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camborne and Redruth | 31.6% | 26.6% | 21.0% | 9.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 26.5%+5.2 | 22.3%+4.4 | 20.0%+0.9 | 9.7%−0.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 100,254 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 44 |
| Employment rate | 85.3% |
Current member
Perran Moon · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 16.3 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 5.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Perran Moon Elected | Labour | 19,360 | 40.5 |
| Connor Donnithorne | Conservative | 11,554 | 24.2 |
| Roger Tarrant | Reform UK | 8,952 | 18.7 |
| Thalia Marrington | Lib Dems | 4,113 | 8.6 |
| Catherine Hayes | Green | 2,840 | 5.9 |
| Paul Holmes | Other | 624 | 1.3 |
| Robert Hawkins | Other | 342 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Truro and Falmouth Labour, safe seat
- North Cornwall Lib Dems, safe seat
- St Austell and Newquay Reform UK, toss-up
- St Ives Lib Dems, safe seat
- South East Cornwall Reform UK, toss-up
- Torridge and Tavistock Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated