Riding profile
Camborne and Redruth
The question
Camborne and Redruth: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Camborne and Redruth, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 32% vote share, against 24% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Perran Moon
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 9.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCamborne and Redruth | 32.4% | 24.2% | 19.6% | 11.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +7.0 | 21.7% +2.5 | 18.9% +0.7 | 11.6% −0.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perran Moon Elected | Labour | 19,360 | 40.5 | — |
| Connor Donnithorne | Conservative | 11,554 | 24.2 | — |
| Roger Tarrant | Reform UK | 8,952 | 18.7 | — |
| Thalia Marrington | Lib Dems | 4,113 | 8.6 | — |
| Catherine Hayes | Green | 2,840 | 5.9 | — |
| Paul Holmes | Other | 624 | 1.3 | — |
| Robert Hawkins | Other | 342 | 0.7 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029