Riding profile

Truro and Falmouth

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south west

The question

Truro and Falmouth: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
2.2
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 26.5%
  • Reform UK 24.3%
  • Conservative 21.0%
  • Green 13.1%
  • Lib Dems 12.1%
  • Other 2.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Conservative Green
HereTruro and Falmouth 26.5%24.3%21.0%13.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +4.6 25.4% −1.1 19.3% +1.7 10.8% +2.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Truro and Falmouth, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 26% vote share, against 24% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Jayne Kirkham

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
16.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-14.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jayne Kirkham Elected Labour 20,783 41.4 —
Cherilyn Mackrory Conservative 12,632 25.1 —
Ruth Gripper Lib Dems 6,552 13.0 —
Steve Rubidge Reform UK 6,163 12.3 —
Karen La Borde Green 3,470 6.9 —
Peter Lawrence Other 498 1.0 —
Peter White Other 166 0.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
96,110
Median age
44
Employment rate
77.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029