Riding profile
Truro and Falmouth
The question
Truro and Falmouth: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Truro and Falmouth, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 26% vote share, against 26% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Jayne Kirkham
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 0.9
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereTruro and Falmouth | 26.1% | 25.6% | 20.1% | 14.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.7% +4.4 | 25.3% +0.3 | 18.9% +1.3 | 11.6% +2.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayne Kirkham Elected | Labour | 20,783 | 41.4 | — |
| Cherilyn Mackrory | Conservative | 12,632 | 25.1 | — |
| Ruth Gripper | Lib Dems | 6,552 | 13.0 | — |
| Steve Rubidge | Reform UK | 6,163 | 12.3 | — |
| Karen La Borde | Green | 3,470 | 6.9 | — |
| Peter Lawrence | Other | 498 | 1.0 | — |
| Peter White | Other | 166 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029