Riding profile

St Ives

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south west

The question

St Ives: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
16.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 41.2%
  • Reform UK 24.8%
  • Conservative 19.8%
  • Green 8.2%
  • Labour 3.0%
  • Other 2.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Reform UK Conservative Green
HereSt Ives 41.2%24.8%19.8%8.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.4% +29.8 25.4% −0.6 19.3% +0.4 10.8% −2.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

St Ives, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 41% vote share, against 25% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Andrew George

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
28.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-12.3 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Andrew George Elected Lib Dems 25,033 52.0 —
Derek Thomas Conservative 11,247 23.4 —
Giane Mortimer Reform UK 6,492 13.5 —
Filson Ali Labour 2,788 5.8 —
Ian Flindall Green 1,797 3.7 —
Dave Laity Other 360 0.8 —
Paul Nicholson Other 187 0.4 —
Jason Saunders Other 111 0.2 —
John Harris Other 91 0.2 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
89,172
Median age
51
Employment rate
83.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029