Riding profile
St Ives
The question
St Ives: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?
Editorial read
St Ives, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 43% vote share, against 25% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Andrew George
Sits with Lib Dems
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 17.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSt Ives | 42.6% | 25.1% | 18.2% | 6.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.6% +31.0 | 25.3% −0.3 | 18.9% −0.7 | 11.8% −5.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew George Elected | Lib Dems | 25,033 | 52.0 | — |
| Derek Thomas | Conservative | 11,247 | 23.4 | — |
| Giane Mortimer | Reform UK | 6,492 | 13.5 | — |
| Filson Ali | Labour | 2,788 | 5.8 | — |
| Ian Flindall | Green | 1,797 | 3.7 | — |
| Dave Laity | Other | 360 | 0.8 | — |
| Paul Nicholson | Other | 187 | 0.4 | — |
| Jason Saunders | Other | 111 | 0.2 | — |
| John Harris | Other | 91 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029