Riding profile

Plymouth Sutton and Devonport

UK constituency — England · Urban · south west

The question

Plymouth Sutton and Devonport: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Plymouth Sutton and Devonport, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 32% vote share, against 31% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Luke Pollard

Sits with Labour

Since
2017-06-08
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
1.4
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 31.7%
  • Reform UK 31.4%
  • Conservative 12.7%
  • Green 12.1%
  • Lib Dems 7.8%
  • Other 4.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Conservative Green
HerePlymouth Sutton and Devonport 31.7%31.4%12.7%12.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +10.1 25.3% +6.0 18.9% −6.2 11.8% +0.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
31.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-30.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Luke Pollard Elected Labour 20,795 49.4
Peter Gold Reform UK 7,467 17.7
Gareth Streeter Conservative 6,873 16.3
Cam Hayward Green 3,186 7.6
Holly Greenberry-Pullen Lib Dems 2,441 5.8
Chaz Singh Other 619 1.5
Guy Haywood Other 311 0.7
Alex Moore Other 220 0.5
Robert Hawkins Other 183 0.4

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
109,322
Median age
35
Employment rate
65.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029