Riding profile

Torbay

UK constituency — England · Urban · south west

The question

Torbay: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
2.2
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 32.6%
  • Reform UK 30.4%
  • Conservative 24.9%
  • Green 6.2%
  • Labour 3.6%
  • Other 2.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Reform UK Conservative Green
HereTorbay 32.6%30.4%24.9%6.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.4% +21.3 25.4% +5.1 19.3% +5.6 10.8% −4.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Torbay, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 33% vote share, against 30% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Steve Darling

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
11.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-9.4 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Steve Darling Elected Lib Dems 18,937 41.1
Kevin Foster Conservative 13,588 29.5
Gordon Scott Reform UK 8,660 18.8
Chris Wongsosaputro Labour 3,276 7.1
Charlie West Green 1,420 3.1
Paul Moor Other 234 0.5

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
104,303
Median age
48
Employment rate
77.7%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029