Riding profile

Torbay

UK constituency — England · Urban · south west

The question

Torbay: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Torbay, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 32% vote share, against 29% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Steve Darling

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
3.5
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 32.3%
  • Reform UK 28.8%
  • Conservative 24.7%
  • Labour 6.3%
  • Green 5.7%
  • Other 2.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Reform UK Conservative Labour
HereTorbay 32.3%28.8%24.7%6.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.6% +20.6 25.3% +3.5 18.9% +5.8 21.7% −15.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
11.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-8.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Steve Darling Elected Lib Dems 18,937 41.1
Kevin Foster Conservative 13,588 29.5
Gordon Scott Reform UK 8,660 18.8
Chris Wongsosaputro Labour 3,276 7.1
Charlie West Green 1,420 3.1
Paul Moor Other 234 0.5

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
104,303
Median age
48
Employment rate
77.7%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029