Riding profile
Torbay
The question
Torbay: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.2
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereTorbay | 32.6% | 30.4% | 24.9% | 6.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.4% +21.3 | 25.4% +5.1 | 19.3% +5.6 | 10.8% −4.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Torbay, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 33% vote share, against 30% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Steve Darling
Sits with Lib Dems
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Darling Elected | Lib Dems | 18,937 | 41.1 | — |
| Kevin Foster | Conservative | 13,588 | 29.5 | — |
| Gordon Scott | Reform UK | 8,660 | 18.8 | — |
| Chris Wongsosaputro | Labour | 3,276 | 7.1 | — |
| Charlie West | Green | 1,420 | 3.1 | — |
| Paul Moor | Other | 234 | 0.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029