Riding profile

Exeter

UK constituency — England · Urban · south west

The question

Exeter: a safe seat for Labour?

Editorial read

Exeter, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 30-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 31% vote share, against 23% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Steve Race

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
6.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 30.5%
  • Reform UK 22.9%
  • Green 21.1%
  • Conservative 11.3%
  • Lib Dems 11.1%
  • Other 2.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Green Conservative
HereExeter 30.5%22.9%21.1%11.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +8.9 25.3% −2.4 11.8% +9.2 18.9% −7.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
29.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-23.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Steve Race Elected Labour 18,225 45.3
Tessa Tucker Conservative 6,288 15.6
Andrew Bell Green 5,907 14.7
Lee Bunker Reform UK 4,914 12.2
Will Aczel Lib Dems 4,201 10.4
Wiliam Poulter Other 466 1.2
Robert Spain Other 194 0.5

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
104,747
Median age
33
Employment rate
71.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029