Riding profile

Newton Abbot

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south west

The question

Newton Abbot: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Newton Abbot, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 30% vote share, against 28% for the Lib Dems, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Martin Wrigley

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
1.6
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 29.6%
  • Lib Dems 28.1%
  • Conservative 20.9%
  • Labour 9.0%
  • Green 7.4%
  • Other 4.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Lib Dems Conservative Labour
HereNewton Abbot 29.6%28.1%20.9%9.0%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.3% +4.3 11.6% +16.4 18.9% +2.0 21.7% −12.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
4.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Martin Wrigley Elected Lib Dems 15,201 31.7
Anne Marie Morris Conservative 12,955 27.0
Christopher Hilditch Reform UK 8,494 17.7
Jacob Cousens Labour 7,115 14.8
Pauline Wynter Green 2,083 4.3
Liam Mullone Other 1,924 4.0
Andre Sabine Other 116 0.2
Annaliese Cude Other 104 0.2

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
93,888
Median age
49
Employment rate
80.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029