Riding profile
Newton Abbot
The question
Newton Abbot: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Newton Abbot, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 30% vote share, against 28% for the Lib Dems, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Martin Wrigley
Sits with Lib Dems
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.6
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Lib Dems | Conservative | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNewton Abbot | 29.6% | 28.1% | 20.9% | 9.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +4.3 | 11.6% +16.4 | 18.9% +2.0 | 21.7% −12.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Wrigley Elected | Lib Dems | 15,201 | 31.7 | — |
| Anne Marie Morris | Conservative | 12,955 | 27.0 | — |
| Christopher Hilditch | Reform UK | 8,494 | 17.7 | — |
| Jacob Cousens | Labour | 7,115 | 14.8 | — |
| Pauline Wynter | Green | 2,083 | 4.3 | — |
| Liam Mullone | Other | 1,924 | 4.0 | — |
| Andre Sabine | Other | 116 | 0.2 | — |
| Annaliese Cude | Other | 104 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029