Riding profile

Exmouth and Exeter East

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south west

The question

Exmouth and Exeter East: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Exmouth and Exeter East, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 27% vote share, against 23% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

David Reed

Sits with Conservative

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
3.9
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 27.4%
  • Conservative 23.4%
  • Lib Dems 18.5%
  • Labour 15.8%
  • Green 10.1%
  • Other 4.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Lib Dems Labour
HereExmouth and Exeter East 27.4%23.4%18.5%15.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.3% +2.0 18.9% +4.5 11.6% +6.8 21.7% −5.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
0.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
David Reed Elected Conservative 14,728 28.7
Helen Dallimore Labour 14,607 28.5
Paul Arnott Lib Dems 11,387 22.2
Garry Sutherland Reform UK 7,085 13.8
Olly Davey Green 2,331 4.5
Daniel Wilson Other 590 1.1
Peter Faithfull Other 454 0.9
Mark Baldwin Other 134 0.3

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
103,940
Median age
43
Employment rate
79.7%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029