Riding profile
Exmouth and Exeter East
The question
Exmouth and Exeter East: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Exmouth and Exeter East, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 27% vote share, against 23% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
David Reed
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.9
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Lib Dems | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereExmouth and Exeter East | 27.4% | 23.4% | 18.5% | 15.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +2.0 | 18.9% +4.5 | 11.6% +6.8 | 21.7% −5.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Reed Elected | Conservative | 14,728 | 28.7 | — |
| Helen Dallimore | Labour | 14,607 | 28.5 | — |
| Paul Arnott | Lib Dems | 11,387 | 22.2 | — |
| Garry Sutherland | Reform UK | 7,085 | 13.8 | — |
| Olly Davey | Green | 2,331 | 4.5 | — |
| Daniel Wilson | Other | 590 | 1.1 | — |
| Peter Faithfull | Other | 454 | 0.9 | — |
| Mark Baldwin | Other | 134 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029