Riding profile
Cardiff South and Penarth
The question
Cardiff South and Penarth: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Cardiff South and Penarth, an urban constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 30-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Green Party ahead at 28% vote share, against 27% for Labour, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Stephen Doughty
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Green
Toss-up
- Probability
- 99%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.8
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Green | Labour | Reform UK | Plaid Cymru | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCardiff South and Penarth | 27.5% | 27.4% | 14.2% | 12.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.8% +15.7 | 21.7% +5.8 | 25.3% −11.1 | 1.0% +11.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Doughty Elected | Labour | 17,428 | 44.5 | — |
| Anthony Slaughter | Green | 5,661 | 14.4 | — |
| Ellis Smith | Conservative | 5,459 | 13.9 | — |
| Simon Llewellyn | Reform UK | 4,493 | 11.5 | — |
| Sharifah Rahman | Plaid Cymru | 3,227 | 8.2 | — |
| Alex Wilson | Lib Dems | 2,908 | 7.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029