Riding profile
Cardiff South and Penarth
The question
Cardiff South and Penarth: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Labour
Toss-up
- Probability
- 97%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.7
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Green | Plaid Cymru | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCardiff South and Penarth | 25.1% | 23.4% | 21.0% | 15.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.8% +3.3 | 25.4% −1.9 | 10.8% +10.2 | 1.2% +14.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Cardiff South and Penarth, an urban constituency in Wales, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 30-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 25% vote share, against 23% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Stephen Doughty
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Doughty Elected | Labour | 17,428 | 44.5 | — |
| Anthony Slaughter | Green | 5,661 | 14.4 | — |
| Ellis Smith | Conservative | 5,459 | 13.9 | — |
| Simon Llewellyn | Reform UK | 4,493 | 11.5 | — |
| Sharifah Rahman | Plaid Cymru | 3,227 | 8.2 | — |
| Alex Wilson | Lib Dems | 2,908 | 7.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029