Riding profile
Weston-super-Mare
The question
Weston-super-Mare: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Weston-super-Mare, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 32% vote share, against 23% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Dan Aldridge
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 9.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereWeston-super-Mare | 32.2% | 23.1% | 22.6% | 10.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +6.9 | 21.7% +1.4 | 18.9% +3.7 | 11.6% −0.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Aldridge Elected | Labour | 16,310 | 38.5 | — |
| John Penrose | Conservative | 11,901 | 28.1 | — |
| Richard Pearse | Reform UK | 7,735 | 18.3 | — |
| Patrick Keating | Lib Dems | 3,756 | 8.9 | — |
| Thomas Daw | Green | 2,688 | 6.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029