Riding profile

Weston-super-Mare

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south west

The question

Weston-super-Mare: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 30.8%
  • Conservative 23.9%
  • Labour 22.0%
  • Green 11.3%
  • Lib Dems 10.4%
  • Other 1.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereWeston-super-Mare 30.8%23.9%22.0%11.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +5.5 19.3% +4.6 21.8% +0.2 10.8% +0.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Weston-super-Mare, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 31% vote share, against 24% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Dan Aldridge

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
10.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.4 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Daniel Aldridge Elected Labour 16,310 38.5 —
John Penrose Conservative 11,901 28.1 —
Richard Pearse Reform UK 7,735 18.3 —
Patrick Keating Lib Dems 3,756 8.9 —
Thomas Daw Green 2,688 6.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
97,756
Median age
43
Employment rate
77.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029