Riding profile

Weston-super-Mare

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south west

The question

Weston-super-Mare: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Editorial read

Weston-super-Mare, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 32% vote share, against 23% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Dan Aldridge

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 32.2%
  • Labour 23.1%
  • Conservative 22.6%
  • Lib Dems 10.9%
  • Green 9.9%
  • Other 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Lib Dems
HereWeston-super-Mare 32.2%23.1%22.6%10.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.3% +6.9 21.7% +1.4 18.9% +3.7 11.6% −0.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
10.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Daniel Aldridge Elected Labour 16,310 38.5
John Penrose Conservative 11,901 28.1
Richard Pearse Reform UK 7,735 18.3
Patrick Keating Lib Dems 3,756 8.9
Thomas Daw Green 2,688 6.3

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
97,756
Median age
43
Employment rate
77.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029