Riding profile
Bridgwater
The question
Bridgwater: will Conservative lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Bridgwater, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 35% vote share, against 25% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Sir Ashley Fox
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 9.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBridgwater | 34.5% | 25.0% | 16.1% | 13.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +9.2 | 18.9% +6.1 | 21.7% −5.6 | 11.6% +2.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashley Fox Elected | Conservative | 12,281 | 30.6 | — |
| Leigh Redman | Labour | 10,932 | 27.2 | — |
| Wiliam Fagg | Reform UK | 8,913 | 22.2 | — |
| Claire Sully | Lib Dems | 5,781 | 14.4 | — |
| Charles Graham | Green | 1,720 | 4.3 | — |
| Pelé Barnes | Other | 334 | 0.8 | — |
| Gregory Tanner | Other | 168 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029