Riding profile

Bridgwater

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south west

The question

Bridgwater: will Conservative lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 33.7%
  • Conservative 25.6%
  • Labour 15.8%
  • Lib Dems 13.9%
  • Green 7.9%
  • Other 2.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Lib Dems
HereBridgwater 33.7%25.6%15.8%13.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +8.3 19.3% +6.3 21.8% −6.0 11.4% +2.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Bridgwater, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 34% vote share, against 26% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Sir Ashley Fox

Sits with Conservative

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
3.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+4.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Ashley Fox Elected Conservative 12,281 30.6 —
Leigh Redman Labour 10,932 27.2 —
Wiliam Fagg Reform UK 8,913 22.2 —
Claire Sully Lib Dems 5,781 14.4 —
Charles Graham Green 1,720 4.3 —
Pelé Barnes Other 334 0.8 —
Gregory Tanner Other 168 0.4 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
100,065
Median age
44
Employment rate
80.1%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029