Riding profile

Wells and Mendip Hills

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south west

The question

Wells and Mendip Hills: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 38.7%
  • Reform UK 24.8%
  • Conservative 20.2%
  • Green 7.8%
  • Other 5.3%
  • Labour 3.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Reform UK Conservative Green
HereWells and Mendip Hills 38.7%24.8%20.2%7.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.4% +27.3 25.4% −0.6 19.3% +0.9 10.8% −3.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Wells and Mendip Hills, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 39% vote share, against 25% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Tessa Munt

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
22.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-8.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Tessa Munt Elected Lib Dems 23,622 46.9
Meg Powell-Chandler Conservative 12,501 24.8
Helen Hims Reform UK 6,611 13.1
Joe Joseph Labour 3,527 7.0
Peter Welsh Green 2,068 4.1
Abi McGuire Other 1,849 3.7
Craig Clarke Other 190 0.4

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
90,307
Median age
50
Employment rate
81.1%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029