Riding profile

North Somerset

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south west

The question

North Somerset: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

North Somerset, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 28% vote share, against 24% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Sadik Al-Hassan

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
3.6
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 27.6%
  • Reform UK 24.2%
  • Labour 20.9%
  • Lib Dems 14.8%
  • Green 10.7%
  • Other 1.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Labour Lib Dems
HereNorth Somerset 27.6%24.2%20.9%14.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 18.9% +8.7 25.3% −1.2 21.7% −0.8 11.6% +3.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
1.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.4 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sadik Al-Hassan Elected Labour 19,138 35.6
Liam Fox Conservative 18,499 34.4
Ash Cartman Lib Dems 7,121 13.2
Alexander Kokkinoftas Reform UK 5,602 10.4
Oscar Livesey-Lodwick Green 3,273 6.1
Suneil Basu Other 133 0.3

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
94,708
Median age
47
Employment rate
87.1%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029