Riding profile

North Somerset

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south west

The question

North Somerset: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.8
P(close race)
81%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 28.4%
  • Reform UK 23.6%
  • Labour 21.0%
  • Lib Dems 13.6%
  • Green 11.2%
  • Other 1.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Labour Lib Dems
HereNorth Somerset 28.4%23.6%21.0%13.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +9.1 25.4% −1.8 21.8% −0.9 11.4% +2.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

North Somerset, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 28% vote share, against 24% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Sadik Al-Hassan

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
1.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sadik Al-Hassan Elected Labour 19,138 35.6 —
Liam Fox Conservative 18,499 34.4 —
Ash Cartman Lib Dems 7,121 13.2 —
Alexander Kokkinoftas Reform UK 5,602 10.4 —
Oscar Livesey-Lodwick Green 3,273 6.1 —
Suneil Basu Other 133 0.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
94,708
Median age
47
Employment rate
87.1%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029