Riding profile

Yeovil

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south west

The question

Yeovil: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?

Editorial read

Yeovil, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 25-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 38% vote share, against 26% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Adam Dance

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
11.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 37.7%
  • Reform UK 26.2%
  • Conservative 19.4%
  • Green 8.2%
  • Labour 6.0%
  • Other 2.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Reform UK Conservative Green
HereYeovil 37.7%26.2%19.4%8.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.6% +26.1 25.3% +0.8 18.9% +0.5 11.8% −3.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
25.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-13.5 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Adam Dance Elected Lib Dems 23,765 48.5
Marcus Fysh Conservative 11,497 23.5
Laura Bailhache Reform UK 7,677 15.7
Rebecca Montacute Labour 3,002 6.1
Serena Wootton Green 2,403 4.9
Steve Ashton Other 608 1.2

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
105,483
Median age
45
Employment rate
77.1%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029