Riding profile

West Dorset

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south west

The question

West Dorset: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?

Editorial read

West Dorset, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 40% vote share, against 29% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Edward Morello

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 40.0%
  • Conservative 29.1%
  • Reform UK 14.8%
  • Green 7.6%
  • Labour 5.6%
  • Other 2.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Conservative Reform UK Green
HereWest Dorset 40.0%29.1%14.8%7.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.6% +28.4 18.9% +10.2 25.3% −10.5 11.8% −4.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
14.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.9 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Edward Morello Elected Lib Dems 26,999 51.3
Chris Loder Conservative 19,210 36.5
Donna Lumsden Labour 3,086 5.9
Kelvin Clayton Green 2,288 4.3
Oliver Chisholm Other 733 1.4
Marcus White Other 289 0.6

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
94,743
Median age
54
Employment rate
80.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029