Riding profile

West Dorset

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south west

The question

West Dorset: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
12.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 41.4%
  • Conservative 29.1%
  • Reform UK 15.3%
  • Green 7.8%
  • Other 3.2%
  • Labour 3.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Conservative Reform UK Green
HereWest Dorset 41.4%29.1%15.3%7.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.4% +30.0 19.3% +9.7 25.4% −10.1 10.8% −3.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

West Dorset, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 41% vote share, against 29% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Edward Morello

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
14.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.5 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Edward Morello Elected Lib Dems 26,999 51.3 —
Chris Loder Conservative 19,210 36.5 —
Donna Lumsden Labour 3,086 5.9 —
Kelvin Clayton Green 2,288 4.3 —
Oliver Chisholm Other 733 1.4 —
Marcus White Other 289 0.6 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
94,743
Median age
54
Employment rate
80.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029