South Dorset
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 38% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.4 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 99%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Dorset | 25.7% | 25.3% | 25.3% | 13.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 22.3%+3.5 | 20.0%+5.3 | 26.5%−1.2 | 9.9%+3.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 98,533 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 50 |
| Employment rate | 81.2% |
Current member
Lloyd Hatton · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 2.1 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 1.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lloyd Hatton Elected | Labour | 15,659 | 31.9 |
| Richard Drax | Conservative | 14,611 | 29.8 |
| Morgan Young | Reform UK | 8,168 | 16.7 |
| Matt Bell | Lib Dems | 8,017 | 16.3 |
| Catherine Bennett | Green | 2,153 | 4.4 |
| Joy Wilson | Other | 192 | 0.4 |
| Giovanna Lewis | Other | 185 | 0.4 |
| Rosie Morrell | Other | 52 | 0.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- West Dorset Lib Dems, safe seat
- North Dorset Conservative, toss-up
- Mid Dorset and North Poole Lib Dems, toss-up
- Poole Conservative, toss-up
- Glastonbury and Somerton Lib Dems, safe seat
- Yeovil Lib Dems, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated