Riding profile
South Dorset
The question
South Dorset: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.1
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSouth Dorset | 28.7% | 25.6% | 18.3% | 15.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +3.3 | 19.3% +6.3 | 21.8% −3.5 | 11.4% +4.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
South Dorset, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 29% vote share, against 26% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Lloyd Hatton
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lloyd Hatton Elected | Labour | 15,659 | 31.9 | — |
| Richard Drax | Conservative | 14,611 | 29.8 | — |
| Morgan Young | Reform UK | 8,168 | 16.7 | — |
| Matt Bell | Lib Dems | 8,017 | 16.4 | — |
| Catherine Bennett | Green | 2,153 | 4.4 | — |
| Joy Wilson | Other | 192 | 0.4 | — |
| Giovanna Lewis | Other | 185 | 0.4 | — |
| Rosie Morrell | Other | 52 | 0.1 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029