Riding profile

Mid Dorset and North Poole

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south west

The question

Mid Dorset and North Poole: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Mid Dorset and North Poole, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 34% vote share, against 32% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Vikki Slade

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
2.4
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 34.4%
  • Conservative 32.1%
  • Reform UK 16.4%
  • Green 7.6%
  • Labour 6.5%
  • Other 2.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Conservative Reform UK Green
HereMid Dorset and North Poole 34.4%32.1%16.4%7.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.6% +22.8 18.9% +13.2 25.3% −9.0 11.8% −4.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
2.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.4 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Vikki Slade Elected Lib Dems 21,442 43.3
Michael Tomlinson Conservative 20,090 40.6
Candice Johnson-Cole Labour 4,566 9.2
Ben Pantling Green 2,355 4.8
John Dowling Other 1,061 2.1

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
96,238
Median age
48
Employment rate
79.7%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029