Riding profile

Mid Dorset and North Poole

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south west

The question

Mid Dorset and North Poole: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
6.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 37.4%
  • Conservative 31.0%
  • Reform UK 16.1%
  • Green 7.5%
  • Labour 4.2%
  • Other 3.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Conservative Reform UK Green
HereMid Dorset and North Poole 37.4%31.0%16.1%7.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.4% +26.1 19.3% +11.7 25.4% −9.3 10.8% −3.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Mid Dorset and North Poole, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 37% vote share, against 31% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Vikki Slade

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
2.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Vikki Slade Elected Lib Dems 21,442 43.3 —
Michael Tomlinson Conservative 20,090 40.6 —
Candice Johnson-Cole Labour 4,566 9.2 —
Ben Pantling Green 2,355 4.8 —
John Dowling Other 1,061 2.1 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
96,238
Median age
48
Employment rate
79.7%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029