Riding profile

Bournemouth East

UK constituency — England · Urban · south west

The question

Bournemouth East: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
0.1
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 25.6%
  • Labour 25.4%
  • Conservative 24.9%
  • Green 10.9%
  • Lib Dems 7.8%
  • Other 5.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Green
HereBournemouth East 25.6%25.4%24.9%10.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +0.2 21.8% +3.6 19.3% +5.6 10.8% +0.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Bournemouth East, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 26% vote share, against 25% for Labour, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Tom Hayes

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
12.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-12.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Tom Hayes Elected Labour 18,316 40.8 —
Tobias Ellwood Conservative 12,837 28.6 —
Martin Houlden Reform UK 6,268 14.0 —
Jon Nicholas Lib Dems 3,082 6.9 —
Joe Salmon Green 2,790 6.2 —
Kieron Wilson Other 1,529 3.4 —
Miles Penn Other 88 0.2 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
106,584
Median age
41
Employment rate
75.7%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029