Riding profile
Bournemouth East
The question
Bournemouth East: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Bournemouth East, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 27% vote share, against 25% for Labour, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Tom Hayes
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.9
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBournemouth East | 26.7% | 25.1% | 23.4% | 10.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +1.3 | 21.7% +3.4 | 18.9% +4.5 | 11.8% −1.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Hayes Elected | Labour | 18,316 | 40.8 | — |
| Tobias Ellwood | Conservative | 12,837 | 28.6 | — |
| Martin Houlden | Reform UK | 6,268 | 14.0 | — |
| Jon Nicholas | Lib Dems | 3,082 | 6.9 | — |
| Joe Salmon | Green | 2,790 | 6.2 | — |
| Kieron Wilson | Other | 1,529 | 3.4 | — |
| Miles Penn | Other | 88 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029