Riding profile
Isle of Wight West
The question
Isle of Wight West: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Isle of Wight West, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 29% vote share, against 24% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Richard Quigley
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.0
- P(close race)
- 57%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereIsle of Wight West | 29.2% | 24.2% | 22.9% | 11.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +3.9 | 18.9% +5.3 | 21.7% +1.2 | 11.8% −0.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Quigley Elected | Labour | 13,240 | 38.6 | — |
| Bob Seely | Conservative | 10,063 | 29.4 | — |
| Ian Pickering | Reform UK | 5,834 | 17.0 | — |
| Nick Stuart | Lib Dems | 2,726 | 8.0 | — |
| Cameron Palin | Green | 2,310 | 6.7 | — |
| Rachel Thacker | Other | 117 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029