Riding profile

Isle of Wight West

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

Isle of Wight West: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
1.3
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 28.3%
  • Conservative 27.0%
  • Labour 21.3%
  • Green 11.8%
  • Lib Dems 9.1%
  • Other 2.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereIsle of Wight West 28.3%27.0%21.3%11.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +3.0 19.3% +7.7 21.8% −0.5 10.8% +1.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Isle of Wight West, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 28% vote share, against 27% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Richard Quigley

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
9.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-8.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Richard Quigley Elected Labour 13,240 38.6 —
Bob Seely Conservative 10,063 29.4 —
Ian Pickering Reform UK 5,834 17.0 —
Nick Stuart Lib Dems 2,726 8.0 —
Cameron Palin Green 2,310 6.7 —
Rachel Thacker Other 117 0.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
71,268
Median age
49
Employment rate
77.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029