Riding profile
Christchurch
The question
Christchurch: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Christchurch, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 31% vote share, against 28% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Sir Christopher Chope
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.4
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Lib Dems | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereChristchurch | 31.2% | 27.7% | 20.3% | 8.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +5.8 | 18.9% +8.8 | 11.6% +8.7 | 21.7% −13.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Chope Elected | Conservative | 16,941 | 35.8 | — |
| Mike Cox | Lib Dems | 9,486 | 20.0 | — |
| Robin Adamson | Reform UK | 8,961 | 18.9 | — |
| Joanna Howard | Labour | 7,762 | 16.4 | — |
| Susan Graham | Green | 1,900 | 4.0 | — |
| Simon McCormack | Other | 1,728 | 3.6 | — |
| Sasha Jolliffe Yasawi | Other | 335 | 0.7 | — |
| Steve Unwin | Other | 163 | 0.3 | — |
| Trevor Parsons | Other | 59 | 0.1 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029