Riding profile

Christchurch

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south west

The question

Christchurch: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
1.1
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 29.7%
  • Conservative 28.6%
  • Lib Dems 17.9%
  • Labour 9.3%
  • Green 8.3%
  • Other 5.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Lib Dems Labour
HereChristchurch 29.7%28.6%17.9%9.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +4.4 19.3% +9.3 11.4% +6.6 21.8% −12.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Christchurch, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 30% vote share, against 29% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Sir Christopher Chope

Sits with Conservative

Since
1997-05-01
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
15.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-14.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Christopher Chope Elected Conservative 16,941 35.8 —
Mike Cox Lib Dems 9,486 20.0 —
Robin Adamson Reform UK 8,961 18.9 —
Joanna Howard Labour 7,762 16.4 —
Susan Graham Green 1,900 4.0 —
Simon McCormack Other 1,728 3.6 —
Sasha Jolliffe Yasawi Other 335 0.7 —
Steve Unwin Other 163 0.3 —
Trevor Parsons Other 59 0.1 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
87,998
Median age
54
Employment rate
79.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029