Riding profile

Bournemouth West

UK constituency — England · Urban · south west

The question

Bournemouth West: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.3
P(close race)
6%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 28.6%
  • Conservative 23.2%
  • Labour 22.9%
  • Green 11.5%
  • Lib Dems 11.1%
  • Other 2.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereBournemouth West 28.6%23.2%22.9%11.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +3.2 19.3% +3.9 21.8% +1.1 10.8% +0.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Bournemouth West, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 29% vote share, against 23% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Jessica Toale

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
8.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jessica Toale Elected Labour 14,365 36.4 —
Conor Burns Conservative 11,141 28.3 —
Ben Aston Reform UK 6,647 16.9 —
Jeff Hanna Lib Dems 4,311 10.9 —
Darren Jones Green 2,614 6.6 —
Julie Vivienne Other 201 0.5 —
David Warden Other 139 0.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
109,309
Median age
37
Employment rate
76.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029