Bournemouth West
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 88% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 78%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth West | 28.6% | 25.4% | 23.6% | 10.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 26.5%+2.2 | 22.3%+3.1 | 20.0%+3.6 | 9.7%+0.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 109,309 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 37 |
| Employment rate | 76.9% |
Current member
Jessica Toale · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 8.2 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 3.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jessica Toale Elected | Labour | 14,365 | 36.4 |
| Conor Burns | Conservative | 11,141 | 28.3 |
| Ben Aston | Reform UK | 6,647 | 16.9 |
| Jeff Hanna | Lib Dems | 4,311 | 10.9 |
| Darren Jones | Green | 2,614 | 6.6 |
| Julie Vivienne | Other | 201 | 0.5 |
| David Warden | Other | 139 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Poole Conservative, toss-up
- Bournemouth East Labour, competitive
- Christchurch Conservative, toss-up
- Mid Dorset and North Poole Lib Dems, toss-up
- New Forest West Conservative, safe seat
- Isle of Wight West Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated