Riding profile
Bournemouth West
The question
Bournemouth West: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Bournemouth West, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 29% vote share, against 23% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Jessica Toale
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBournemouth West | 29.2% | 22.9% | 22.8% | 13.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +3.9 | 18.9% +4.0 | 21.7% +1.1 | 11.6% +1.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jessica Toale Elected | Labour | 14,365 | 36.4 | — |
| Conor Burns | Conservative | 11,141 | 28.3 | — |
| Ben Aston | Reform UK | 6,647 | 16.9 | — |
| Jeff Hanna | Lib Dems | 4,311 | 10.9 | — |
| Darren Jones | Green | 2,614 | 6.6 | — |
| Julie Vivienne | Other | 201 | 0.5 | — |
| David Warden | Other | 139 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029