Riding profile

New Forest West

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

New Forest West: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
2.8
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 29.9%
  • Reform UK 27.2%
  • Lib Dems 17.0%
  • Labour 13.8%
  • Green 9.2%
  • Other 2.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Lib Dems Labour
HereNew Forest West 29.9%27.2%17.0%13.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +10.6 25.4% +1.8 11.4% +5.6 21.8% −8.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

New Forest West, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 30% vote share, against 27% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Sir Desmond Swayne

Sits with Conservative

Since
1997-05-01
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
12.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-9.3 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Desmond Swayne Elected Conservative 16,412 35.4 —
Sally Johnston Labour 10,812 23.3 —
Jack Davies Lib Dems 8,186 17.7 —
Reginald Chester-Sterne Reform UK 7,577 16.4 —
Anna Collar Green 2,800 6.0 —
Gavin Ridley Other 393 0.8 —
Paul Simon Other 157 0.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
84,792
Median age
54
Employment rate
79.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029