Riding profile
New Forest West
The question
New Forest West: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
New Forest West, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 29% vote share, against 27% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Sir Desmond Swayne
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Conservative
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.0
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Reform UK | Lib Dems | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNew Forest West | 29.2% | 27.2% | 16.1% | 14.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 18.9% +10.3 | 25.3% +1.9 | 11.6% +4.4 | 21.7% −7.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Swayne Elected | Conservative | 16,412 | 35.4 | — |
| Sally Johnston | Labour | 10,812 | 23.3 | — |
| Jack Davies | Lib Dems | 8,186 | 17.7 | — |
| Reginald Chester-Sterne | Reform UK | 7,577 | 16.4 | — |
| Anna Collar | Green | 2,800 | 6.0 | — |
| Gavin Ridley | Other | 393 | 0.8 | — |
| Paul Simon | Other | 157 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029