Riding profile

Salisbury

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south west

The question

Salisbury: a safe seat for the Conservatives?

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 29.2%
  • Reform UK 23.4%
  • Lib Dems 19.5%
  • Labour 16.0%
  • Green 9.0%
  • Other 2.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Lib Dems Labour
HereSalisbury 29.2%23.4%19.5%16.0%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +9.9 25.4% −1.9 11.4% +8.2 21.8% −5.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Salisbury, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 29% vote share, against 23% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

John Glen

Sits with Conservative

Since
2010-05-06
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
7.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.9 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
John Glen Elected Conservative 17,110 34.1 —
Matt Aldridge Labour 13,303 26.5 —
Victoria Charleston Lib Dems 11,825 23.6 —
Julian Malins Reform UK 5,235 10.4 —
Barney Norris Green 2,115 4.2 —
Arthur Pendragon Other 458 0.9 —
Chris Harwood Other 127 0.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
92,881
Median age
47
Employment rate
82.1%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029