Salisbury
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | Reform UK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salisbury | 31.1% | 20.1% | 19.9% | 18.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.0%+11.0 | 26.5%−6.4 | 9.9%+10.0 | 22.3%−3.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 92,881 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 47 |
| Employment rate | 82.1% |
Current member
John Glen · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 7.6 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 10.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Glen Elected | Conservative | 17,110 | 34.1 |
| Matt Aldridge | Labour | 13,303 | 26.5 |
| Victoria Charleston | Lib Dems | 11,825 | 23.6 |
| Julian Malins | Reform UK | 5,235 | 10.4 |
| Barney Norris | Green | 2,115 | 4.2 |
| Arthur Pendragon | Other | 458 | 0.9 |
| Chris Harwood | Other | 127 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- New Forest West Conservative, safe seat
- East Wiltshire Conservative, safe seat
- Bournemouth West Labour, toss-up
- Bournemouth East Labour, competitive
- South West Wiltshire Conservative, toss-up
- Christchurch Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated