Riding profile
Salisbury
The question
Salisbury: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Salisbury, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 28% vote share, against 24% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
John Glen
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Conservative
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.6
- P(close race)
- 98%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Reform UK | Lib Dems | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSalisbury | 28.2% | 23.6% | 19.9% | 16.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 18.9% +9.3 | 25.3% −1.7 | 11.6% +8.2 | 21.7% −5.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Glen Elected | Conservative | 17,110 | 34.1 | — |
| Matt Aldridge | Labour | 13,303 | 26.5 | — |
| Victoria Charleston | Lib Dems | 11,825 | 23.6 | — |
| Julian Malins | Reform UK | 5,235 | 10.4 | — |
| Barney Norris | Green | 2,115 | 4.2 | — |
| Arthur Pendragon | Other | 458 | 0.9 | — |
| Chris Harwood | Other | 127 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029