Riding profile

East Wiltshire

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south west

The question

East Wiltshire: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
73%
Mean margin (pts)
0.2
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 29.6%
  • Conservative 29.5%
  • Lib Dems 14.9%
  • Labour 14.7%
  • Green 8.9%
  • Other 2.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Lib Dems Labour
HereEast Wiltshire 29.6%29.5%14.9%14.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +4.3 19.3% +10.2 11.4% +3.6 21.8% −7.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

East Wiltshire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 30% vote share, against 30% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Danny Kruger

Sits with Reform UK

Since
2019-12-12
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
10.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-9.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Danny Kruger Elected Conservative 16,849 35.7 —
Rob Newman Labour 12,133 25.7 —
David Kinnaird Lib Dems 8,204 17.4 —
Stephen Talbot Reform UK 7,885 16.7 —
Emily Herbert Green 1,844 3.9 —
Pete Force-Jones Other 278 0.6 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
102,866
Median age
40
Employment rate
78.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029