Riding profile
East Wiltshire
The question
East Wiltshire: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
East Wiltshire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 30% vote share, against 29% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Danny Kruger
Sits with Reform UK
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 76%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 0.2
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Lib Dems | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereEast Wiltshire | 29.6% | 29.4% | 15.2% | 15.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +4.2 | 18.9% +10.5 | 11.6% +3.5 | 21.7% −6.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Kruger Elected | Conservative | 16,849 | 35.7 | — |
| Rob Newman | Labour | 12,133 | 25.7 | — |
| David Kinnaird | Lib Dems | 8,204 | 17.4 | — |
| Stephen Talbot | Reform UK | 7,885 | 16.7 | — |
| Emily Herbert | Green | 1,844 | 3.9 | — |
| Pete Force-Jones | Other | 278 | 0.6 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029