Riding profile
Newbury
The question
Newbury: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 8.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNewbury | 36.4% | 28.3% | 21.6% | 7.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.4% +25.1 | 19.3% +9.0 | 25.4% −3.8 | 10.8% −3.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Newbury, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 36% vote share, against 28% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Mr Lee Dillon
Sits with Lib Dems
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee Dillon Elected | Lib Dems | 19,645 | 40.1 | — |
| Laura Farris | Conservative | 17,268 | 35.3 | — |
| Douglas Terry | Reform UK | 5,357 | 10.9 | — |
| Liz Bell | Labour | 3,662 | 7.5 | — |
| Steve Masters | Green | 2,714 | 5.5 | — |
| Earl Jesse | Other | 153 | 0.3 | — |
| Gary Johnson | Other | 131 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029