Riding profile
Newbury
The question
Newbury: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Newbury, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 33% vote share, against 29% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Mr Lee Dillon
Sits with Lib Dems
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.9
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNewbury | 32.7% | 28.8% | 20.6% | 9.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.6% +21.1 | 18.9% +9.9 | 25.3% −4.7 | 11.8% −2.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee Dillon Elected | Lib Dems | 19,645 | 40.1 | — |
| Laura Farris | Conservative | 17,268 | 35.3 | — |
| Douglas Terry | Reform UK | 5,357 | 10.9 | — |
| Liz Bell | Labour | 3,662 | 7.5 | — |
| Steve Masters | Green | 2,714 | 5.5 | — |
| Earl Jesse | Other | 153 | 0.3 | — |
| Gary Johnson | Other | 131 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029