Riding profile

North West Hampshire

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

North West Hampshire: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

North West Hampshire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 28% vote share, against 27% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Kit Malthouse

Sits with Conservative

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
0.8
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 28.3%
  • Reform UK 27.4%
  • Labour 16.9%
  • Lib Dems 15.6%
  • Green 9.4%
  • Other 2.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Labour Lib Dems
HereNorth West Hampshire 28.3%27.4%16.9%15.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 18.9% +9.4 25.3% +2.1 21.7% −4.7 11.6% +3.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
6.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Kit Malthouse Elected Conservative 17,770 35.0
Andy Fitchet Labour 14,482 28.5
Andy Meacham Reform UK 7,734 15.2
Luigi Gregori Lib Dems 7,626 15.0
Hina West Green 2,745 5.4
Phil Heath Other 466 0.9

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
109,893
Median age
40
Employment rate
76.8%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029