Riding profile

North West Hampshire

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

North West Hampshire: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
3.7
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 28.9%
  • Reform UK 25.2%
  • Labour 17.1%
  • Lib Dems 16.2%
  • Green 10.1%
  • Other 2.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Labour Lib Dems
HereNorth West Hampshire 28.9%25.2%17.1%16.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +9.6 25.4% −0.2 21.8% −4.7 11.4% +4.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

North West Hampshire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 29% vote share, against 25% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Kit Malthouse

Sits with Conservative

Since
2015-05-07
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
6.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Kit Malthouse Elected Conservative 17,770 35.0 —
Andy Fitchet Labour 14,482 28.5 —
Andy Meacham Reform UK 7,734 15.2 —
Luigi Gregori Lib Dems 7,626 15.0 —
Hina West Green 2,745 5.4 —
Phil Heath Other 466 0.9 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
109,893
Median age
40
Employment rate
76.8%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029