Riding profile

Didcot and Wantage

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

Didcot and Wantage: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
14.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 37.1%
  • Conservative 22.9%
  • Reform UK 21.1%
  • Labour 8.7%
  • Green 8.1%
  • Other 1.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Conservative Reform UK Labour
HereDidcot and Wantage 37.1%22.9%21.1%8.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.4% +25.7 19.3% +3.6 25.4% −4.3 21.8% −13.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Didcot and Wantage, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 37% vote share, against 23% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Olly Glover

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
11.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Olly Glover Elected Lib Dems 21,793 39.8 —
David Johnston Conservative 15,560 28.4 —
Mocky Khan Labour 8,045 14.7 —
Steve Beatty Reform UK 6,400 11.7 —
Sam Casey-Rerhaye Green 2,693 4.9 —
Kyn Pomlett Other 242 0.4 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
109,312
Median age
40
Employment rate
87.7%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029