Riding profile

Reading West and Mid Berkshire

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

Reading West and Mid Berkshire: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
2.7
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 27.3%
  • Reform UK 24.6%
  • Labour 20.0%
  • Lib Dems 12.7%
  • Green 11.6%
  • Other 3.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Labour Lib Dems
HereReading West and Mid Berkshire 27.3%24.6%20.0%12.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +8.0 25.4% −0.7 21.8% −1.8 11.4% +1.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Reading West and Mid Berkshire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 27% vote share, against 25% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Olivia Bailey

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
2.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Olivia Bailey Elected Labour 16,273 35.0 —
Ross Mackinnon Conservative 14,912 32.0 —
Kathrin Bosley Reform UK 6,260 13.4 —
Helen Belcher Lib Dems 5,103 11.0 —
Carolyne Culver Green 3,169 6.8 —
Adrian Abbs Other 562 1.2 —
Adie Peppiatt Other 272 0.6 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
95,642
Median age
42
Employment rate
74.1%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029