Riding profile
Basingstoke
The question
Basingstoke: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Conservative
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 0.7
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBasingstoke | 25.4% | 24.7% | 24.6% | 12.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 19.3% +6.1 | 25.4% −0.7 | 21.8% +2.8 | 10.8% +1.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Basingstoke, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 25% vote share, against 25% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Luke Murphy
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Murphy Elected | Labour | 20,922 | 42.7 | — |
| Maria Miller | Conservative | 14,438 | 29.5 | — |
| Ray Saint | Reform UK | 6,314 | 12.9 | — |
| Michael Howard-Sorrell | Green | 3,568 | 7.3 | — |
| Richard Whelan | Lib Dems | 3,176 | 6.5 | — |
| Alan Stone | Other | 571 | 1.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029