Riding profile

Bicester and Woodstock

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

Bicester and Woodstock: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?

Editorial read

Bicester and Woodstock, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 32% vote share, against 24% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Calum Miller

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 31.9%
  • Conservative 23.5%
  • Reform UK 21.3%
  • Labour 11.9%
  • Green 9.4%
  • Other 1.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Conservative Reform UK Labour
HereBicester and Woodstock 31.9%23.5%21.3%11.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.6% +20.3 18.9% +4.6 25.3% −4.0 21.7% −9.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
9.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.4 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Calum Miller Elected Lib Dems 19,419 38.7
Rupert Harrison Conservative 14,461 28.8
Veronica Oakeshott Labour 8,236 16.4
Augustine Obodo Reform UK 5,408 10.8
Ian Middleton Green 2,404 4.8
Tim Funnell Other 291 0.6

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
102,891
Median age
41
Employment rate
89.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029