Riding profile

Oxford East

UK constituency — England · Urban · south east

The question

Oxford East: a safe seat for Labour?

Editorial read

Oxford East, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 33-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 33% vote share, against 19% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Anneliese Dodds

Sits with Labour

Since
2017-06-08
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
12.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 33.5%
  • Green 19.3%
  • Reform UK 13.6%
  • Other 12.8%
  • Lib Dems 12.1%
  • Conservative 8.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Green Reform UK Other
HereOxford East 33.5%19.3%13.6%12.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +11.8 11.8% +7.5 25.3% −11.7 4.8% +8.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
33.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-20.5 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Anneliese Dodds Elected Labour 19,541 49.7
Sushila Dhall Green 5,076 12.9
Louise Brown Conservative 4,739 12.1
Theodore Jupp Lib Dems 3,437 8.7
David Henwood Other 2,381 6.0
Amir Ali Other 1,761 4.5
Zaid Marham Other 615 1.6
Jabu Nala-Hartley Other 600 1.5
Andrew Smith Other 425 1.1
Katherine Longthorp Other 337 0.9
Benjamin Adams Other 232 0.6
Brandon French Other 197 0.5

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
118,578
Median age
33
Employment rate
75.8%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029