Riding profile
Oxford West and Abingdon
The question
Oxford West and Abingdon: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?
Editorial read
Oxford West and Abingdon, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 43% vote share, against 18% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Layla Moran
Sits with Lib Dems
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 26.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereOxford West and Abingdon | 43.4% | 17.5% | 13.6% | 12.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.6% +31.8 | 25.3% −7.8 | 18.9% −5.3 | 21.7% −9.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Layla Moran Elected | Lib Dems | 23,414 | 50.9 | — |
| Vinay Raniga | Conservative | 8,520 | 18.5 | — |
| Stephen Webb | Labour | 5,981 | 13.0 | — |
| James Gunn | Reform UK | 4,164 | 9.1 | — |
| Chris Goodall | Green | 3,236 | 7.0 | — |
| Anni Byard | Other | 259 | 0.6 | — |
| Ian Shelley | Other | 256 | 0.6 | — |
| Josh Phillips | Other | 168 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029