Oxford West and Abingdon
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 30.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oxford West and Abingdon | 46.5% | 15.6% | 14.8% | 10.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 9.9%+36.6 | 20.0%−4.5 | 22.3%−7.5 | 26.5%−16.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 106,817 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 35 |
| Employment rate | 76.1% |
Current member
Layla Moran · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 32.4 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 30.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Layla Moran Elected | Lib Dems | 23,414 | 50.9 |
| Vinay Raniga | Conservative | 8,520 | 18.5 |
| Stephen Webb | Labour | 5,981 | 13.0 |
| James Gunn | Reform UK | 4,164 | 9.1 |
| Chris Goodall | Green | 3,236 | 7.0 |
| Anni Byard | Other | 259 | 0.6 |
| Ian Shelley | Other | 256 | 0.6 |
| Josh Phillips | Other | 168 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Oxford East Labour, safe seat
- Didcot and Wantage Lib Dems, safe seat
- Bicester and Woodstock Lib Dems, safe seat
- Witney Lib Dems, safe seat
- Henley and Thame Lib Dems, safe seat
- Newbury Lib Dems, competitive
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated