Riding profile
Oxford West and Abingdon
The question
Oxford West and Abingdon: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 26.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereOxford West and Abingdon | 44.2% | 18.3% | 13.1% | 12.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.4% +32.9 | 25.4% −7.1 | 19.3% −6.2 | 10.8% +1.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Oxford West and Abingdon, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 44% vote share, against 18% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Layla Moran
Sits with Lib Dems
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Layla Moran Elected | Lib Dems | 23,414 | 50.9 | — |
| Vinay Raniga | Conservative | 8,520 | 18.5 | — |
| Stephen Webb | Labour | 5,981 | 13.0 | — |
| James Gunn | Reform UK | 4,164 | 9.1 | — |
| Chris Goodall | Green | 3,236 | 7.0 | — |
| Anni Byard | Other | 259 | 0.6 | — |
| Ian Shelley | Other | 256 | 0.6 | — |
| Josh Phillips | Other | 168 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029