Riding profile

Witney

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

Witney: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 35.0%
  • Conservative 25.4%
  • Reform UK 24.6%
  • Green 7.5%
  • Labour 4.9%
  • Other 2.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Conservative Reform UK Green
HereWitney 35.0%25.4%24.6%7.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.4% +23.7 19.3% +6.1 25.4% −0.8 10.8% −3.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Witney, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 35% vote share, against 25% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Charlie Maynard

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
8.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Charles Maynard Elected Lib Dems 20,832 41.2
Robert Courts Conservative 16,493 32.6
Richard Langridge Reform UK 6,307 12.5
Antonio Weiss Labour 4,773 9.4
Andrew Prosser Green 1,661 3.3
Barry Ingleton Other 350 0.7
David Cox Other 168 0.3

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
100,352
Median age
42
Employment rate
87.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029